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So far same old same old, but his approach is to use the play as a vehicle to slip in the assumptions and outcomes as just part of teh narrative. Looking at the latter: - Aruba in the early noughties took at collective approach for its future strategy and engaged 60 of the island's c 100 000 population, - They used the, appreciative Inquiry approach (Discover, Dream, Design. Prediction is always difficult, said Yogi Berra, especially about the future. This evening he acted out making a nature documentary in the future, but members of the audience had to answer assumptions on the role of nature reserves in the future, impact of tourism, and the various other assumptions. However, it's something we do quite a bit of (have you seen our work on election prediction - Brexit, Trump, UK 2017, Germany etc - we got them all right) so I went along to the. I think - as Cat noted in the first talk - always base your scenarios on evidence of research).
For example Cat did one session on blockchain visualisation using a blood transfusion drone made of felt and other blue petery stuff to stimulate thoughts of what (electronic vampire?) blood donation services may be like. This was about how to have inclusive conversations with people about changes to their cities, buildings etc. Whether you agree with the approach or not (In my experience with Tech you do often do have to build a Future Thing for people to be able to think concretely about, and this looks useful for that. What I didn't know is there are a bunch of Nesta games in existence or production: - Innovate - Superbug - Consortium, inclusive Place based futures - Harry Armstrong. As she notes, simulation helps in a number of ways: - Model the trade-offs and outcomes (and some aspects often become clear in the dynamics of the model) - Visualisation makes it easy to see things - Collaboration. Her summary of how to make it work was good, I liked the checklist of what a simulation or game needs, not so much the first 3 which are almost a given, but the last 3 which are. Examples used were the Newcastle 2065 future city strategy and the Island of Aruba's 2000 strategy for itself.
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His view is that a scenario is an Imagined vision - doesn't have to be correct, but you need a range including a best and worst. Age of Unreason we are seeing I wouln't be surprised it it makes a comeback, albeit maybe with dead plants). What interested me about this example is that Aruba had a change of Govt during the process and teh new people wanted to change or cancel some of the streams, but concerted citizen action forced their continuation. Simulation and game design are more my comfort zone area, so to an extent I knew more abot this approach than the others - anyway, it was all sensible stuff and Florence noted the main problems one hits with respect. Typically top doesn solution go awry, it's better to get the locals involved for a variety of reasons and avert failure: - Appeal to democratic/ethical notions to get buy in - To drive collective action needs a shared. Anyway, in summary they covered these 4 approaches: Speculative Design - Cat Drew, speculative Design is primarily the use of physical things to provoke debate, rather than using documents/words/numbers etc. Overall impression - the evening seemed a bit heavy on the qualitative and light on the quantitative, my experience is at some point someone with the power of decision making says "show me the numbers behind the grand vision". Games and Simulation - Florence Engasser. Nesta Futurescoping 101 event on this last night see what they had that I could steal to offer. There were 4 talks on various ways of predicting the future, or more accurately 4 ways of making scenarios (reading entrails of dead animals is still outre, but with the return to the.
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